Willie Drennan
The EU Referendum on June 23rd is going to be the
most significant political event of my lifetime. From the start of the campaign a lot of
people have already decided if they are on the Vote Leave or Vote Remain side.
For the duration they will passionately support their side, in the same way as
they will their team in the Euro 16 football finals. For many, as in the game of football, logic
will not enter into the game as the partisan faithful will loyally cheer on
their side until the final whistle blows on June 23rd.
I suppose I fit into that category as I have been a
Eurosceptic since the early 1980’s when I was living in Canada, close to the Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia. Nova
Scotians explained to me that the picturesque harbour in nearby Margaretsville
was one of many dotted along the Fundy shore that had been developed and
maintained to facilitate a massive fishing industry. Now, all those fishing
villages were home to only a few recreational fishing enthusiasts as commercial
trawl fishing had wrecked the sea beds and killed-off the local industry.
Similarly, it was the same story with the once lucrative
forestry industry. The general consensus
of the local Nova Scotians was that it was the fault of the government, based
in far-off Ottawa, who were in bed with large
multi-national corporations: who were just out for short term riches with no
concern for the livelihoods of those in the Maritime Provinces. And there was really
nothing the Maritimers could do about it as they were too small in numbers to
have any political clout with the
government in Ottawa.
It was clear that there was a strategy by the super rich and powerful to become
even more rich and powerful at the expense of the average working person.
When I connected this scenario to the situation in Northern Ireland
there were obvious parallels. In particular with farming it was obvious that
Eurocrats in far-off Brussels were dictating the
nature of farming in Northern
Ireland and there was nothing the farmers
could do about it: for the same reasons as the Nova Scotian fishermen. So, the June 23rd referendum will
give farmers, and the rest of us, an opportunity to do something about it for
the first time.
But, it is all very complicated as there are many factors to
consider and so before I go out and buy the Vote Leave t-shirt I want to get a
few things straight and I’ll start off with the economy.
Here are some of my understandings of the potential economic
implications of an UK
exit from the EU, now being referred to as Brexit. I’m sure someone will inform me and enlighten
me if I’m wrong.
The British taxpayer gives more money to the EU than they
give us back in subsidies and grants for projects. There has been no lofty
scheme in the UK that has
been a gift from Brussels:
ultimately they have all been sponsored by the British taxpayer. There are
different ways to calculate the percentages but it is obvious that a huge chunk
of the (£1billion per month,) UK
donation vanishes into various nooks and crannies along the maze of EU fiscal
corridors. Possibly no one really knows,
in real terms, just how much British money goes astray in the tangled
bureaucratic web that feeds the hungry mouths of Eurocrats and their friendly
corporate lobbyists.
We import more from the EU than the EU imports from the UK. So, even if the Eurocrats wanted to punish
the UK for divorcing them,
the French will still want to sell us wine; the Spanish, their fruit and
vegetables and the Germans, their cars. There will still be trade deals between
EU countries and the UK
after a Brexit.
Currently, while the UK
remains part of the EU, it cannot have free trade deals with countries outside
of the EU: and there is a big wide world out there. In particular we are part
of the ‘Commonwealth’ of 53 independent sovereign states, which includes the
likes of Canada, Australia and New
Zealand. The world of trade beyond the EU would be our
oyster: an exciting adventure of exploration to the shorelines of the Seven
Seas.
It is feared that
Brexit would cause large multi-national corporations to relocate to Europe. Well they have already been doing that
for a long time. What happens is that our government invests millions of our
pounds in large foreign companies who set up shop here for a number of years:
training and employing a British workforce. Once their funding obligations to
the British taxpayer have been met they then, predictably, take off to
countries with cheaper labour leaving thousands of local workers hanging out to
dry. Brexit will not change that but it should lead to a new, more sensible,
strategy of investment to support and sustain local British companies and
promote the ‘Made in UK’
label.
Brexit could give the
UK the impetus to revitalise
British manufacturing. EU laws seem to determine what each EU country
manufactures and there are laws to ensure fair trading within the EU. So
following Brexit, perhaps the Belfast City Council will then be able to
purchase new busses from an internationally respected nearby local company:
instead of being compelled, by EU law, to buy them from another EU bus manufacturing
company even when the local deal was preferable? Perhaps also, the next time
the Scottish government needs to repair the Forth Road
Bridge
they will buy steel from British Steel to help maintain that local industry?
In broader economic terms there is no way to know for
certain how a Brexit vote on June 23rd would impact on jobs,
investment and tourism. On the short
term, there probably would not be too much noticeable difference but in the long
term surely the potential for increased prosperity would be greater in a UK free to make its own crucial decisions and
creative investment: free of the shackles of an EU economy that seems to be
floundering. If that great big EU ship is going to sink – and it certainly
looks like it –then surely it is best that we jump it and get our money out
before it drowns in a sea of irrelevance?
So, on all things financial, that’s me in the Leave camp for
now. But as I said, this is a crucial
decision and if I am getting facts wrong, or my figures wrong, I do hope
someone will enlighten me soon.
There are many other crucial aspects to consider: including
control of our borders, control of our laws and concerns specific to Northern Ireland. I will write about those once
I have digested the economic matters.
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